Maoist mayhem in India

Maoist rebels have thoroughly shaken the Indian establishment by killing at least 75 troops of Central Reserve Police in Dantewada, Chhattisgarh state, the highest casualty inflicted by the Maoists in a single instance so far. The attack comes on the heels of similar attacks but with fewer casualties in Orissa and West Bengal. With this deadly attack, the Maoists, who are a growing force, have upped the ante vis-à-vis Indian government which recently stepped up its operations against them. As it often happens with insurgency, this attack will embolden the Maoist guerillas, glorify violence, and bring in more disenchanted youths into their fold. At the same time, it will also increase the Maoists’ ability to extort and mobilize resources because the vulnerable populace will now begin to fear the Maoists and also become less and less assured about the state’s protection.



The Maoists have entered into an offensive phase, in a manner the Nepali Maoists did in early 2001. We can tell from our own experience that the Indian establishment should now expect more attacks and more casualties, however desperately it may try to contain the insurgency. The Maoists seem to have overcome the initial hindrance of not having enough number of recruits, resources, weapons, and a taste of a major success in assaulting the ‘enemy’. The Indian state will also now take on the Maoists with full force. This only means more bloodshed and more body counts on both sides.



One of human civilization’s perennial failures is that we do not learn from others’ experiences and mistakes. Otherwise, both India and its Maoist rebels would have learned from the Nepali experience and many similar ones from around the world, and opted for genuine dialogue. This is not a war either side is going to win, and eventually they will have to come to the negotiating table and reach a deal. The choice is only whether they want to do it now or after more damage has been caused on both sides and to the country.



The Maoists’ War in India will also have implications for Nepal. Already there is a growing discontent among the Indian political circle, security agencies and Indian middle class against the Nepali Maoists. Though the Naxalite Movement in India dates back to late sixties, many Indians believe that the recent Maoist insurgency in India was inspired by the success of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. Their attitude toward Nepali Maoists could harden more in the days to come.



But the response could be a reflexive opposite reaction as well: The Indian establishment may calculate the risk of Nepali Maoists abandoning the peace process and taking up arms. Should that happen, which is less likely, the Nepali and Indian Maoists will once again join hands, creating a bigger threat. This calculation may actually help soften Indian position against the Nepali Maoists. The Maoists’ growing capability in India will also have an impact on Nepali Maoists, at least on the radical quarters. They might be tempted to go back to war once again.

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